SimEbola.com

Interactive outbreak simulator that proves why fortress strategies fail and trains teams on what actually works

Score: 6.1/10GuineaHard Build
Brand Colors

The Opportunity

Problem

International bureaucratic inertia and misguided "fortress" containment strategies allow Ebola to rapidly overwhelm African nations despite clear lessons from past outbreaks.

Solution

SimEbola lets global health policymakers and African response leads run thousands of containment scenarios calibrated against every major historical Ebola outbreak. It visually demonstrates the cascading failures of traditional fortress containment and teaches agile, adaptive strategies that reduce bureaucratic lag through automated escalation paths and pre-approved protocol triggers.

Target Audience

Global health policymakers, African epidemic response teams, and international aid organizations managing infectious disease outbreaks

Differentiator

The only simulator with a ground-truth dataset of response efficacy from 2014 West Africa, 2018-2020 DRC, and 2022 Uganda outbreaks, providing quantitative evidence against fortress thinking.

Brand Voice

professional

Features

Historical Replay Engine

must-have55h

Replay exact 2014-2022 Ebola scenarios with real parameters

Strategy Simulator

must-have70h

Agent-based modeling of different containment approaches with visual outcomes

Bureaucracy Impact Model

must-have40h

Quantifies delay costs of approval chains vs automated triggers

Training Mode with Scoring

must-have45h

Guided scenarios that score decision quality against historical best outcomes

Dashboard for Leadership

must-have35h

Executive view of simulation libraries and team training completion

Exportable Briefings

must-have25h

One-click PDF/PowerPoint exports tailored for WHO or ministry presentations

Collaborative Simulation

nice-to-have40h

Multiple stakeholders run the same scenario in real time

Custom Scenario Builder

nice-to-have50h

Build new outbreak scenarios from scratch

VR Mode

future60h

Immersive VR view of outbreak progression (WebXR)

Total Build Time: 420 hours

Database Schema

organizations

ColumnTypeNullable
iduuidNo
nametextNo
domaintextNo
created_attimestampNo

users

ColumnTypeNullable
iduuidNo
org_iduuidNo
emailtextNo
roletextNo
created_attimestampNo

Relationships:

  • org_id → organizations.id

simulations

ColumnTypeNullable
iduuidNo
org_iduuidNo
user_iduuidNo
scenario_iduuidNo
parametersjsonbNo
resultsjsonbNo
created_attimestampNo

Relationships:

  • org_id → organizations.id
  • user_id → users.id

scenarios

ColumnTypeNullable
iduuidNo
nametextNo
base_yearintNo
is_publicboolNo
calibration_datajsonbNo

API Endpoints

POST
/api/simulate

Run full simulation with chosen parameters

🔒 Auth Required
GET
/api/scenarios

List available historical and custom scenarios

🔒 Auth Required
POST
/api/training/complete

Record training session and generate certificate

🔒 Auth Required
POST
/api/briefing/export

Generate PDF briefing from simulation results

🔒 Auth Required

Tech Stack

Frontend
SvelteKit with Tailwind and D3.js
Backend
FastAPI with Numba for performance
Database
PostgreSQL
Auth
Clerk
Payments
Stripe
Hosting
Vercel (frontend), Fly.io (API + worker)
Additional Tools
Celery for background simulation jobsPlotly for visualization

Build Timeline

Week 1: Core simulation engine

48h
  • Basic agent model in Python
  • SvelteKit scaffolding
  • Historical 2014 data import

Week 2: UI and visualization

45h
  • Interactive map + graph dashboard
  • Parameter controls
  • Clerk auth

Week 3: Bureaucracy and training modules

50h
  • Delay modeling logic
  • Guided training flows
  • Scoring system

Week 4: Scenario library

42h
  • 2014, 2018, 2022 calibrated scenarios
  • Custom scenario builder MVP

Week 5: Collaboration and export

38h
  • Real-time multi-user simulation
  • PDF briefing generator

Week 6: Polish and beta

35h
  • Performance optimization
  • Closed beta with WHO-affiliated users
Total Timeline: 6 weeks • 420 hours

Pricing Tiers

Educator

$0/mo

5 simulations per month

  • Limited public scenarios
  • Basic simulations

Pro

$35/mo

For teams up to 15

  • All historical scenarios
  • Unlimited simulations
  • Training certification
  • Briefing exports

Institutional

$149/mo

Unlimited

  • Custom scenario creation
  • Organization library
  • SSO
  • Usage analytics
  • Priority support

Revenue Projections

MonthUsersConversionMRRARR
Month 18518%$535$6,420
Month 652022%$4,004$48,048

Unit Economics

$110
CAC
$795
LTV
4%
Churn
86%
Margin
LTV:CAC Ratio: 7.2xExcellent!

Landing Page Copy

Prove Fortress Containment Doesn't Work

Run thousands of Ebola scenarios calibrated to real outbreaks. Train your team on strategies that actually stop viral spread.

Feature Highlights

Replay real Ebola outbreaks
Compare fortress vs adaptive strategies
Quantified bureaucracy delay modeling
Certification for response teams

Social Proof (Placeholders)

"'This should be mandatory training for every global health policymaker' — Former WHO Ebola Coordinator"
"'The visual proof finally convinced our ministry to abandon blanket quarantines' — Ugandan Health Official"

First Three Customers

Offer free institutional licenses to universities with global health programs (Johns Hopkins, LSHTM, Makerere University) in exchange for case studies. Present the simulator at the next WHO Strategic Advisory Group meeting. Partner with the African Union Africa CDC to run national training workshops using the tool.

Launch Channels

ProductHuntLinkedIn Global Healthr/simulationEffective Altruism Global Health ForumDevpost Health Tech challenges

SEO Keywords

ebola simulation softwareoutbreak modeling toolcontainment strategy simulatorpandemic preparedness trainingepidemic decision support system

Competitive Analysis

AnyLogic

anylogic.com
Enterprise licensing
Strength

Very powerful general simulation

Weakness

Not calibrated to Ebola realities or bureaucratic inertia

Our Advantage

Purpose-built for infectious disease response with real historical calibration data

GLEAMviz

gleamviz.org
Free academic
Strength

Strong global epidemic modeling

Weakness

No focus on operational response tactics or bureaucracy modeling

Our Advantage

Specifically teaches field response and policy decisions with scoring

🏰 Moat Strategy

Curated, continuously updated library of calibrated Ebola scenarios and efficacy data that becomes more valuable as more organizations contribute anonymized outcomes

⏰ Why Now?

Recent outbreaks have created political will for better preparedness training while browser-based high-performance computing (WebAssembly) now makes complex simulations accessible without expensive desktop software.

Risks & Mitigation

marketmedium severity

Perception as 'just another simulator' rather than decision tool

Mitigation

Heavy emphasis on training certification and real policy impact case studies

technicalmedium severity

Simulation performance on lower-end devices

Mitigation

Progressive fidelity — simpler models for mobile, full models on desktop

Validation Roadmap

pre-build12 days

Validate with 15 senior policymakers and trainers

Success: At least 12 agree current training is inadequate and would adopt new tool

mvp40 days

Run workshop with 3 organizations using the beta simulator

Success: ≥80% of participants prefer it to current methods

Pivot Options

  • Expand into full pandemic tabletop exercise platform
  • License models to national defense biothreat programs
  • Focus on corporate pandemic business continuity

Quick Stats

Build Time
420h
Target MRR (6 mo)
$9,500
Market Size
$65.0M
Features
9
Database Tables
4
API Endpoints
4