ScenarioBR.com

Simule cenários diplomáticos e proteja sua receita

Score: 7.5/10BrazilHard BuildReady to Spawn
Brand Colors

The Opportunity

Problem

Brazilian businesses and investors face diplomatic and economic uncertainty from Trump's appointment of a hardline Cuban-American Trump ally as US ambassador to Brazil

Solution

ScenarioBR lets Brazilian companies build 'what-if' models of potential US policy moves (tariffs, sanctions, regulatory changes) under the new ambassador. Users input their exposure data and instantly see projected P&L impact with recommended countermeasures.

Target Audience

Brazilian investors, exporters, and business leaders reliant on US trade and diplomacy

Differentiator

Uses a unique library of the ambassador’s past policy outcomes in Cuba/Venezuela translated into Brazilian economic variables — far more accurate than generic tariff calculators.

Brand Voice

professional

Features

Scenario Builder

must-have55h

Drag-and-drop interface to create tariff, regulatory, or diplomatic scenarios

Financial Impact Simulator

must-have40h

Calculates projected revenue, margin, and volume changes

Historical Scenario Library

must-have30h

Pre-built models based on 2017-2020 Trump policies adapted to Brazil

Countermeasure Engine

must-have35h

AI suggests diversification, price increases, or hedging tactics

Comparison Reports

must-have25h

Side-by-side scenario comparison with exportable charts

Data Import

must-have20h

CSV upload of current export portfolio for accurate modeling

Team Collaboration

nice-to-have28h

Share scenarios with colleagues and comment in real time

Monte Carlo Risk Analysis

nice-to-have45h

Probabilistic modeling with multiple random variables

API for ERP integration

future35h

Push simulation results into corporate systems

Total Build Time: 313 hours

Database Schema

users

ColumnTypeNullable
iduuidNo
emailtextNo
companytextYes
created_attimestampNo

scenarios

ColumnTypeNullable
iduuidNo
user_iduuidNo
nametextNo
tariff_changeintYes
regulatory_changetextYes
created_attimestampNo

Relationships:

  • user_id references users(id)

simulation_runs

ColumnTypeNullable
iduuidNo
scenario_iduuidNo
revenue_impactintNo
margin_impactintNo
recommended_actionstextYes
run_attimestampNo

Relationships:

  • scenario_id references scenarios(id)

subscriptions

ColumnTypeNullable
iduuidNo
user_iduuidNo
tiertextNo
mercado_pago_subscription_idtextYes

Relationships:

  • user_id references users(id)

API Endpoints

POST
/api/simulate

Run new simulation with given parameters

🔒 Auth Required
GET
/api/scenarios

List user's saved scenarios

🔒 Auth Required
POST
/api/import-csv

Parse uploaded export data

🔒 Auth Required

Tech Stack

Frontend
Ruby on Rails with Hotwire and Tailwind
Backend
Ruby on Rails
Database
PostgreSQL
Auth
Devise
Payments
Mercado Pago
Hosting
Render
Additional Tools
SidekiqOpenAIChartkickPandas via Python microservice

Build Timeline

Week 1: Core Rails setup

32h
  • Rails 7 app with Devise
  • Database schema
  • Basic UI with Hotwire

Week 2: Simulation engine

48h
  • Financial model service object
  • Scenario CRUD
  • Basic Monte Carlo implementation

Week 3: AI recommendations

40h
  • OpenAI integration for countermeasures
  • Historical library seeding
  • Dashboard

Week 4: Payments and polish

35h
  • Mercado Pago billing
  • PDF export
  • Collaboration features
  • Testing with real Brazilian datasets
Total Timeline: 4 weeks • 190 hours

Pricing Tiers

Starter

$0/mo

Public scenarios only

  • 3 simulations per month
  • Basic charts

Pro

$22/mo

Single user

  • Unlimited simulations
  • AI countermeasures
  • Historical library
  • CSV import

Enterprise

$99/mo

None

  • Team seats
  • Monte Carlo advanced
  • API access
  • Dedicated account manager

Revenue Projections

MonthUsersConversionMRRARR
Month 1959%$189$2,268
Month 692014%$2,849$34,188

Unit Economics

$51
CAC
$620
LTV
4%
Churn
78%
Margin
LTV:CAC Ratio: 12.2xExcellent!

Landing Page Copy

Simule o impacto do novo embaixador antes que ele afete seu caixa

Modelos financeiros precisos baseados na história real do embaixador. Tome decisões baseadas em dados, não em pânico.

Feature Highlights

Simulações ilimitadas de tarifas
Recomendações de IA em português
Comparação de cenários
Relatórios para conselho

Social Proof (Placeholders)

""Reduzimos nossa exposição em 18% depois de rodar 4 cenários." — CFO, Exportadora de Frango"
""Melhor ferramenta de planejamento que já usei." — Diretor, Minas Gerais"

First Three Customers

Contact 15 large soybean and poultry exporters via their trade associations and offer free Enterprise trials for 30 days in exchange for case studies. Run Facebook/LinkedIn lead-gen ads targeting 'exportadores brasil' with free scenario template as lead magnet. Leverage personal network in Brazilian private equity funds to get warm intros to portfolio companies.

Launch Channels

ProductHuntLinkedIn Sales NavigatorABRAS (Brazilian Supermarket Assoc)r/BrasilIndieHackers

SEO Keywords

simulador tarifas eua brasilcenários diplomáticos comércio exteriorimpacto embaixador trump exportaçãoplanejamento risco comercial brasilsimulador política americana

Competitive Analysis

TradeRisk.ai

traderisk.ai
$99+/mo
Strength

Good macro modeling

Weakness

US-centric, no Brazil-specific ambassador models

Our Advantage

Deep focus on current Brazilian reality and ambassador's ideology

🏰 Moat Strategy

Curated library of ambassador-specific outcome mappings that improves with every user simulation saved (data moat)

⏰ Why Now?

Markets are actively looking for ways to quantify the new ambassador's potential hardline policies — timing aligns with immediate post-appointment anxiety.

Risks & Mitigation

executionhigh severity

Complex simulation math errors

Mitigation

Extensive testing against real 2018-2019 tariff outcome data

marketmedium severity

Users find modeling too time-consuming

Mitigation

Pre-built templates and one-click scenarios

Validation Roadmap

pre-build12 days

Run 8 customer interviews with financial directors of mid-size exporters testing mockups

Success: At least 6 indicate they would pay $22/mo

mvp25 days

Private beta with 25 companies running minimum 5 simulations each

Success: Average 4.2/5 satisfaction and 50% paid conversion

Pivot Options

  • Become full trade-finance hedging platform
  • White label for banks
  • Expand to currency and commodity hedging

Quick Stats

Build Time
190h
Target MRR (6 mo)
$3,800
Market Size
$9.5M
Features
9
Database Tables
4
API Endpoints
3